In the American electoral favor, Joe Biden is well ahead of Donald Trump – that’s what the polls say. But once before, polls have misled us. USA correspondent Doris Simon with an assessment.
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Election 2020: what the data tell us
On October 7, Vice President Mike Pence and Democratic Vice Presidential candidate Kamala Harris had a TV duel. It was decidedly different from the chaotic altercation on September 29th between President Donald Trump and his challenger Joe Biden. The discussion was matter-of-fact and calm, no mobbing or swipes, no falling into words.
President Donald Trump did not cut a good figure in the TV duel, many observers agreed. And according to surveys, Joe Biden is ahead: On average, he is now 9.5 percentage points ahead of all surveys.
Donald Trump is certainly not without a chance, says Doris Simon, Dlf correspondent in the USA. But it will be “very difficult for him”. Donald Trump’s polls have been consistently behind those of his challenger for a long time. Above all, the US president is not trusted by two important groups of voters: women and older voters.
Donald Trump’s statements in recent days regarding his corona infection, the many corona deaths and unemployed in the country, the boycott of a new aid package for employees – all of this has cost him confidence.
Biden is also ahead in swing states
Whoever wants to become President of the USA has to get the votes in the important swing states – states like Florida with around 29 electoral votes, which are particularly important. And here too, according to our correspondent, Joe Biden has the edge.
2020 US Election Is A Bit Different
In the election this year everything is different: Already, more people have cast their votes by postal vote than ever before, says Doris Simon. It can be assumed that there are a particularly large number of Democrats among them, because Trump has repeatedly advised against voting by mail and claims it is not safe. So everything points to a high level of mobilization among the Democrats. In general, a very high voter turnout of up to 65 percent is expected.
There are many indications that Joe Biden could emerge as the winner. But experts and journalists in the country are cautious, says Doris Simon – after all, Hillary Clinton was predicted to win an election in 2016, but Donald Trump won.
In retrospect, it is assumed that many people in the polls at the time did not dare to openly admit that they were voting for Donald Trump. But this time there are probably fewer of these “shy voters”. Doris Simon believes that the polls could be more accurate this year.